Four Years Remaining

That is, if we are lucky and everything is done according to the proper tradition of doing statistics with 1% confidence intervals. In practice, things are probably even worse (many use 5% for instance), but this is what you would expect when everyone used proper methodology.

Think about it...

Two hardened criminals are taken to interrogation in separate cells.
They are offered the usual deal:
  If neither confesses, both get one year probation.
  If both confess, both do 5 years in jail.
  If one confesses, he goes free but the other does 10 years hard time.

Here's what actually goes through their minds:
"Okay, if neither of us confesses, we have to go back to the real world. But its so hard there!
But if I confess, he will kill me when he gets out.. so thats bad...
If both of us confess, then we can just get back to jail and continue our lives!"

Note that it shares some similarities with the original...